Thiruvananthapuram: Kerala is bracing for the arrival of the Northeast Monsoon (Thulavarsham), with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting widespread light to moderate rainfall across the state from October 12 to October 16, 2026.
The transition coincides with the ongoing withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from the remaining parts of the country, creating favorable atmospheric conditions for the onset of the Northeast Monsoon over southern India over the next 2 to 3 days.
- Cyclonic Circulation: An upper-air cyclonic circulation persists over the Gulf of Mannar and adjoining south Tamil Nadu coast at 0.9 km above mean sea level.
- Bay of Bengal Low-Pressure Alert: Another cyclonic circulation lies over the south Andaman Sea and neighboring areas. Under its influence, a new low-pressure area is likely to form over the southeast Bay of Bengal around October 13.
Kerala Rain Forecast: Day-by-Day Breakdown (October 12–16)
While light-to-moderate showers are expected generally throughout the period, intensity is projected to peak mid-week with isolated heavy spells:
- October 12: Light to moderate rain accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds (reaching 30–40 km/h) at isolated places.
- October 13 & 14: Scattered thundershowers are very likely in isolated pockets.
- October 15 & 16: Intensified Weather Warning: Isolated heavy rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and strong surface winds reaching 40–50 km/h is predicted.
Safety Advisories for Residents
With thunder, lightning, and gusty winds forecast during this transition phase, authorities advise the public to stay alert:
- Avoid standing in open areas or under large trees during lightning strikes.
- Exercise caution while driving through low-lying areas prone to sudden waterlogging.
